Space Weather Update: 01/03/2017
By Spaceweather.com, 01/03/2017
MAGNETIC STORMS LIKELY THIS WEEK: NOAA forecasters have boosted the odds of polar geomagnetic storms on Jan. 4th and 5th to 65% as a stream of solar wind approaches Earth. The hot wind is flowing from a large hole in the sun’s atmosphere. This image, from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory, shows the yawning structure almost directly facing Earth on Jan. 3rd:
Coronal holes are regions where the sun’s magnetic field peels back and allows solar wind to escape. The stream of wind emerging from this coronal hole recently blew past NASA’s STEREO-A spacecraft with peak speeds exceeding 700 km/s. Similar high speeds are likely when the stream reaches Earth on Jan. 4th and 5th.
ANALEMMA TIMES 9: If you took a picture of the sun at the same time each day, would it remain in the same position? The answer is no, and the figure-8 shape traced out by the sun over the course of a year is called an “analemma.” Over the years, many photographers have created analemmas. In 2016, however, Steven Riegel of Colorado Springs CO took it up a notch. He photographed the sun 9 times a day, creating the rare nonalemma:
“I opened up a year-long (1 Jan – 31 Dec 2016) analemma exposure on New Year’s Day,” explains Riegel. ” The result is a record of the position of the sun on the hour between 7:00 am and 3:00 pm every day for a full year.”
“The camera is just a light-tight box with a pinhole in the side. I put an 8×10 piece of B/W photo paper inside. The pinhole was uncovered for two minutes each hour by a rotating paper mask attached to a cheap electric clock. The image is burned into the photo paper by the bright sunlight.”
” I can’t claim originality for the technique, but I’ve only seen a couple of other similar examples done previously,” says Riegel. “It’s a nerve-wracking time waiting for the year to see if you set things up correctly!”
QUADRANTID METEOR SHOWER: On Tuesday of this week, Earth will pass through a stream of dusty debris from shattered comet 2003 EH1, source of the annual Quadrantid meteor shower. Forecasters expect the shower to peak around 14:00 UT (6 am PST) on Jan. 3rd–timing that favors western parts of North America and islands across the Pacific. As many as 100 meteors per hour could flow from a radiant near the North Star on Tuesday morning.
All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA’s Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth’s atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Jan. 3, 2017, the network reported 50 fireballs.
(29 sporadics, 21 Quadrantids)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point–Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On January 3, 2017 there were potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:Asteroid
Notes: LD means “Lunar Distance.” 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere
Readers, thank you for your patience while we continue to develop this new section of Spaceweather.com. We’ve been working to streamline our data reduction, allowing us to post results from balloon flights much more rapidly, and we have developed a new data product, shown here:
This plot displays radiation measurements not only in the stratosphere, but also at aviation altitudes. Dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. These measurements are made by our usual cosmic ray payload as it passes through aviation altitudes en route to the stratosphere over California.
What is this all about? Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly “down to Earth” form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 12% since 2015:
Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth’s magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.
The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Reneger-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth’s atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
speed: 415.6 km/sec
density: 6.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2040 UTX-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A6 1605 UT Jan03
24-hr: A7 1316 UT Jan03
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2000 UTDaily Sun: 03 Jan 17The sun is blank–no sunspots. Credit: SDO/HMI
Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 03 Jan 2017
Current Stretch: 2 days
2017 total: 2 days (66%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Updated 03 Jan 2017
Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/OvationPlanetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 4 unsettled
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 8.3 nT
Bz: -2.9 nT north
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2039 UTCoronal Holes: 03 Jan 17
Solar wind flowing from this major coronal hole should reach Earth on Jan 4th-5th. Credit: NASA/SDO.Noctilucent Clouds The southern season for noctilucent clouds began on Nov. 17th. Come back to this spot every day to see the “daily daisy” from NASA’s AIM spacecraft, which is monitoring the dance of electric-blue around the Antarctic Circle.
Switch view: Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, East Antarctica, PolarUpdated at: 01-03-2017 16:55:03
Updated at: 2017 Jan 02 2200 UTC
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth’s magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe stormUpdated at: 2017 Jan 02 2200 UTCMid-latitudes