Space Weather Update: 11/08/2016
By Spaceweather.com, 11/08/2016
CHANCE OF STORMS ON NOV. 8TH: Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible later today when a CME (described below) is expected to deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras after dark on Nov. 8th. Live webcam
‘CANYON OF FIRE’ OPENS, SPITS A CME TOWARD EARTH: On Nov. 5th, a filament of magnetism in the sun’s northern hemisphere became unstable and erupted. The blast split the sun’s atmosphere, hurling a CME into space and creating a “canyon of fire,” shown here in a movie recorded by the Solar Dynamics Observatory:
The glowing walls of the canyon trace the original channel where the filament was suspended by magnetic forces above the sun’s surface. From end to end, the structure stretches more than 200,000 km–a real Grand Canyon.
Fragments of the exploding filament formed the core of a CME that raced away from the sun faster than a million mph: movie. NOAA analysts have modeled the trajectory of the CME and concluded that it will probably strike Earth’s magnetic field on Nov. 8th. The impact could spark G1-class geomagnetic storms and auroras at high latitudes. Free: Aurora Alerts
FLIGHT OF THE SPACE PICKLE: Did you know that cosmic radiation in Earth’s atmosphere is increasing? It’s true. These and other findings of the Earth to Sky Calculus ballooning program are funded not by government grants or corporate donations. Instead, we rely on crowdfunding. Hence, the flight of the space pickle:
To raise funds for their ongoing research, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus flew two dozen Christmas pickles to the stratosphere. On Nov. 5th, the glass gherkins ascended to an altitude of 111,900 feet, experiencing temperatures as low as -55 C and cosmic ray dose rates more than 100x Earth normal.
You can have one for your own tree. Price: $49.95. All proceeds are used to support cutting-edge student research. The space pickle and other edge of space gifts may be found in the Earth to Sky Store.
All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA’s Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth’s atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Nov. 8, 2016, the network reported 45 fireballs.
(35 sporadics, 8 Northern Taurids, 2 Orionids)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point–Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On November 8, 2016 there were potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:Asteroid
Notes: LD means “Lunar Distance.” 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere
Readers, thank you for your patience while we continue to develop this new section of Spaceweather.com. We’ve been working to streamline our data reduction, allowing us to post results from balloon flights much more rapidly, and we have developed a new data product, shown here:
This plot displays radiation measurements not only in the stratosphere, but also at aviation altitudes. Dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. These measurements are made by our usual cosmic ray payload as it passes through aviation altitudes en route to the stratosphere over California.
What is this all about? Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly “down to Earth” form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 12% since 2015:
Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth’s magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.
The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Reneger-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth’s atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
speed: 298.1 km/sec
density: 8.3 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2007 UTX-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A9 1816 UT Nov08
24-hr: B1 0948 UT Nov08
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2000 UTDaily Sun: 08 Nov 16Neither of these almost-invisible sunspots poses a threat for solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI
Sunspot number: 24
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 08 Nov 2016
Current Stretch: 0 days
2016 total: 22 days (7%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Updated 08 Nov 2016
Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/OvationPlanetary K-index
Now: Kp= 1 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 2 quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.0 nT
Bz: 1.1 nT north
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2006 UTCoronal Holes: 08 Nov 16
Solar wind flowing from this southern coronal hole could reach Earth as early as Nov. 11th. Credit: NASA/SDO.Noctilucent Clouds NASA’s AIM spacecraft has suffered an anomaly, and a software patch is required to fix it. As a result, noctilucent cloud images will not return until further notice. AIM science team members are optimistic that the
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, PolarUpdated at: 08-06-2016 16:55:02
Updated at: 2016 Nov 07 2200 UTC
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth’s magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe stormUpdated at: 2016 Nov 07 2200 UTCMid-latitudes