Space Weather Update: 11/14/2016
By Spaceweather.com, 11/14/2016
CHANCE OF GEOMAGNETIC STORMS: For the 3rd day in a row, Earth is passing through a stream of fast-moving solar wind. Minor G1-class geomagnetic storms are possible on Nov. 14th. The visibility of auroras, however, will be reduced by the glare of the supermoon. Browse: aurora photo gallery.
THE BIGGEST FULL MOON IN ALMOST 70 YEARS: Today’s full Moon is the biggest and brightest in almost 70 years. The best time to look in North America is before sunrise on Monday morning, while in Europe the best time is after sunset on the same day.
“The last time we had such a close full Moon was January 26, 1948,” says Geoff Chester of the US Naval Observatory, “and it won’t happen again until November 25, 2034.”
The supermoon and an ice halo, photographed by Tadas Janušonis of Vabalninkas, Lithuania.
Full moons vary in size because the Moon’s orbit is not a circle, it’s an ellipse: diagram. One side of the Moon’s orbit, called “perigee,” is 50,000 km closer to Earth than the other side, “apogee.” This Monday’s “supermoon” becomes full about 2 hours away from perigee, a coincidence that makes it as much as 14% bigger and 30% brighter than lesser moons we have seen in the past.
But will we be able to tell the difference … just by looking? A 30% difference in brightness can easily be masked by clouds or the glare of urban lights. Also, there are no rulers floating in the sky to measure lunar diameters. Hanging high overhead with no reference points to provide a sense of scale, one full Moon looks much like any other.
“I think that the hype over the term ‘supermoon’ is a bit overblown,” says Chester. “In my book every full Moon has something to offer!”
To get the most out of Monday’s apparition, try to catch the Moon just as it is rising or setting. This will activate the Moon Illusion and make the perigee Moon of Nov. 14th look super, indeed.
ROCKET PHOTOBOMBS AURORA OUTBURST: On Friday night in Sweden, aurora tour guide Oliver Wright led a group of 8 under the starry skies of Abisko National Park hoping for a glimpse of the aurora borealis. “Suddenly,” says Wright, “one of the guests shouted ‘what’s that?’ I grabbed my binoculars and saw this amazing crescent-shaped thing moving slowly across the sky.” It was not the aurora borealis:
“I had never seen anything like it,” says Wright, “so I called Chad Blakley of Lights over Lapland, and he confirmed that his live webcam saw it too.” A four-frame animation shows it moving slowly across the sky for more than 20 minutes.
What was it? Mystery solved: Earlier in the day, an Atlas V rocket blasted off from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California carrying the Worldview 4 satellite to orbit. Later, the rocket’s Centaur upper stage vented its excess fuel, creating the ghostly cloud over Sweden.
For Wright and his guests, the show was far from over. “A huge aurora started to develop around the Moon and became a magnificent corona above our heads,” he says. This is a 1/2 second exposure:
“It was moving super fast–the fastest corona I’ve seen in 3 years of guiding,” says Wright. “In the end we had some super happy guests and a super happy guide!”
All Sky Fireball Network
Every night, a network of NASA all-sky cameras scans the skies above the United States for meteoritic fireballs. Automated software maintained by NASA’s Meteoroid Environment Office calculates their orbits, velocity, penetration depth in Earth’s atmosphere and many other characteristics. Daily results are presented here on Spaceweather.com.
On Nov. 12, 2016, the network reported 14 fireballs.
(13 sporadics, 1 omicron Eridanid)
In this diagram of the inner solar system, all of the fireball orbits intersect at a single point–Earth. The orbits are color-coded by velocity, from slow (red) to fast (blue). [Larger image] [movies]
Near Earth Asteroids
Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On November 14, 2016 there were 1741 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:Asteroid
Notes: LD means “Lunar Distance.” 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
Cosmic Rays in the Atmosphere
Readers, thank you for your patience while we continue to develop this new section of Spaceweather.com. We’ve been working to streamline our data reduction, allowing us to post results from balloon flights much more rapidly, and we have developed a new data product, shown here:
This plot displays radiation measurements not only in the stratosphere, but also at aviation altitudes. Dose rates are expessed as multiples of sea level. For instance, we see that boarding a plane that flies at 25,000 feet exposes passengers to dose rates ~10x higher than sea level. At 40,000 feet, the multiplier is closer to 50x. These measurements are made by our usual cosmic ray payload as it passes through aviation altitudes en route to the stratosphere over California.
What is this all about? Approximately once a week, Spaceweather.com and the students of Earth to Sky Calculus fly space weather balloons to the stratosphere over California. These balloons are equipped with radiation sensors that detect cosmic rays, a surprisingly “down to Earth” form of space weather. Cosmic rays can seed clouds, trigger lightning, and penetrate commercial airplanes. Furthermore, there are studies ( #1, #2, #3, #4) linking cosmic rays with cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in the general population. Our latest measurements show that cosmic rays are intensifying, with an increase of more than 12% since 2015:
Why are cosmic rays intensifying? The main reason is the sun. Solar storm clouds such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) sweep aside cosmic rays when they pass by Earth. During Solar Maximum, CMEs are abundant and cosmic rays are held at bay. Now, however, the solar cycle is swinging toward Solar Minimum, allowing cosmic rays to return. Another reason could be the weakening of Earth’s magnetic field, which helps protect us from deep-space radiation.
The radiation sensors onboard our helium balloons detect X-rays and gamma-rays in the energy range 10 keV to 20 MeV. These energies span the range of medical X-ray machines and airport security scanners.
The data points in the graph above correspond to the peak of the Reneger-Pfotzer maximum, which lies about 67,000 feet above central California. When cosmic rays crash into Earth’s atmosphere, they produce a spray of secondary particles that is most intense at the entrance to the stratosphere. Physicists Eric Reneger and Georg Pfotzer discovered the maximum using balloons in the 1930s and it is what we are measuring today.
speed: 581.6 km/sec
density: 2.2 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2152 UTX-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: A9 1636 UT Nov14
24-hr: B1 1437 UT Nov14
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2100 UTDaily Sun: 14 Nov 16Not one of these sunspots poses a threat for strong solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI
Sunspot number: 38
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 14 Nov 2016
Current Stretch: 0 days
2016 total: 23 days (7%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Updated 14 Nov 2016
Current Auroral Oval:
Switch to: Europe, USA, New Zealand, Antarctica
Credit: NOAA/OvationPlanetary K-index
Now: Kp= 2 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 4.2 nT
Bz: 0.1 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 2153 UTCoronal Holes: 14 Nov 16
Earth is inside a stream of solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal hole. Credit: NASA/SDO.Noctilucent Clouds NASA’s AIM spacecraft has suffered an anomaly, and a software patch is required to fix it. As a result, noctilucent cloud images will not return until further notice. AIM science team members are optimistic that the
Switch view: Europe, USA, Asia, PolarUpdated at: 08-06-2016 16:55:02
Updated at: 2016 Nov 13 2200 UTC
Probabilities for significant disturbances in Earth’s magnetic field are given for three activity levels: active, minor storm, severe stormUpdated at: 2016 Nov 13 2200 UTCMid-latitudes